Ukrainian rebels' independence hopes will fade

Significance

The self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) have claimed statehood since 2014, but that may not fit into Russia's plans for a unitary Ukraine. Both entities are heavily dependent on Russian funding, military backing and political goodwill. Companies in both entities also maintain economic relationships with Ukraine despite continued clashes along the front line.

Impacts

• Russian-backed rebels may escalate the conflict to prod Ukraine into conducting elections.
• Reintegrating the DNR and LNR would increase the pro-Moscow electorate in Ukraine, upsetting power relations among political parties.
• Failure to conclude the Minsk 2.0 process would leave the DNR and LNR as Russian satrapies like Transnistria and Abkhazia.