NATO disunity may undermine Warsaw summit agenda

Significance

The Warsaw summit was held as the alliance seeks to develop a long-term posture for the turbulent security environment that has developed in and around Europe over the last five years. Policymakers in many NATO capitals saw the summit as a chance for the alliance to clarify its mission in light of security challenges along its eastern border and the Mediterranean rim. Given the United Kingdom's recent vote in favour of leaving the EU ('Brexit'), the summit also generated a sense of urgency in sending a strong signal of European political unity.

Impacts

• Security relationships are likely to trump US concerns about internal constitutional arrangements in Poland and Turkey.
• Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine will not be able to count on their NATO partner status in the event of a confrontation with Russia.
• US presidential candidate Donald Trump's call for significant NATO restructuring will find few natural allies in Washington or abroad.