Tanzania's regional rise will face challenges

Significance

Tanzania is leading the Burundi peace negotiations. This is part of a growing regional role for the country, economically and diplomatically, which is raising its international profile.

Impacts

• Tensions with Kenya may increase as Tanzania's economic, political and diplomatic influence grows.
• Political tensions with the opposition in Zanzibar could create instability, straining relations with donors.
• Relations with China will deepen, especially if new large-scale projects proceed.
• Tanzania may play a larger role resolving upcoming political flashpoints, eg the scheduled 2016 elections in the DRC.
• Domestic opposition may seek external support if the regime continues to suppress political expression.