Regional shifts will not destabilise Bolivia

Subject

Bolivia's regional relations.

Significance

Changes of government in Brazil and Argentina, Bolivia's main trade partners, come as a blow to President Evo Morales's government. One by one, Bolivia's main left-of-centre allies in the region have disappeared. Those that remain -- like Venezuela and Ecuador -- face significant economic and political problems. However, the Morales administration enjoys various advantages that should help it see out its term.

Impacts

• Both Brazil and Argentina will continue to do business with La Paz, but the relationship will be less ideological and more business-like.
• The collapse of the Venezuelan government would be a psychological rather than a political or economic blow.
• The chances of restoring full US diplomatic relations are small in what remains of President Barack Obama's term.