Lebanon's Hezbollah faces strategic risks in Syria

Subject

Hezbollah's Syria intervention.

Significance

Hezbollah announced that one of its top military leaders, Mustafa Badr al-Din, was killed in an explosion in the Damascus area on May 10. Badr al-Din, who reportedly oversaw Hezbollah's military operations in Syria, is the highest-ranking Hezbollah to be killed in Syria since its intervention in support of the Assad regime began in earnest in 2012.

Impacts

• Hezbollah's military capabilities will help ensure the Assad regime's survival.
• Its relationship with its Shia support base in Lebanon will come under further strain.
• Hezbollah's dominance in Lebanon is contingent on having an allied or non-hostile regime in Syria.
• If Hezbollah's position in Syria were to become untenable, it would likely lose its military and political dominance in Lebanon.