Converging pressures risk implosion in Venezuela

Significance

Tensions have escalated sharply after senior government figures rejected the validity of signatures collected by the opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) alliance in its campaign for a recall referendum against President Nicolas Maduro. Amid government concern at alleged external efforts to push Maduro from office, the 60-day state of economic emergency has been renewed and extended to include military deployment and exercises.

Impacts

• Both sides will call supporters onto the streets, elevating violence risks in western states such as Tachira and Merida, as well as Caracas.
• Washington and the OAS will come under pressure to intervene -- both diplomatically and through use of force.
• The CNE may yet exercise independence and rule in favour of the MUD petition.
• This would put it on a collision course with the government but provide a potential path to diminish tensions.