Canadian domestic constraints will frustrate Beijing

Subject

Bilateral ties between Canada and China under the Trudeau government.

Significance

The government of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is currently grappling with how to deepen engagement with China while managing domestic opposition in some quarters to closer commercial and diplomatic ties.

Impacts

• Washington is likely to take a dim view of closer Canada-China ties, particularly if commercial deals have security implications.
• Oil-driven weakening of the Canadian dollar will boost the attractiveness of non-energy exports to China.
• Arctic transit rights may pose a sticking point between Beijing and Ottawa as polar shipping routes open.