Russia's Baltic Sea build-up will challenge NATO

Significance

The Baltic Sea and its airspace brings NATO and Russian forces into direct contact, and frictions have increased since 2014, with a series of dangerously close encounters between aircraft and vessels. NATO wishes to reassure member states and bolster defence and deterrence in the Baltic region. Russia argues that it is being encircled and is developing a network of anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) weapons systems to deter NATO maritime and air forces during a crisis or war.

Impacts

• Aggressive Russian tactics will not stop NATO naval and air forces operating in international waters and in the Baltic states.
• NATO exercises are likely to intensify, with a special emphasis on long-range strike, anti-submarine and electronic warfare.
• Amphibious landings to reinforce the Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian armies will be tested.
• NATO members and partners will consider acquiring submarines, sea-based air defence systems and anti-submarine capabilities.