Social anxieties will drive pre-poll unrest in Zambia

Significance

In part, the crackdown aims to contain unrest driven by frustration at the Patriotic Front (PF) government's handling of the weak economy and rising crime. The recent spate of xenophobic violence is symptomatic of rising social tensions.

Impacts

• IMF assistance may stabilise key fiscal metrics, but any help will be withheld until after the August election.
• Moody's April 19 downgrading of Zambia's credit rating to B3 with a negative outlook from B2 will raise borrowing costs.
• Repairs to the Kariba dam, planned for early 2017, will help to stabilise hydroelectric power sources in the longer term.
• Unrest in Mozambique could drive some communities to flee across the border, exacerbating pressure on resources in Zambia.