Taliban will not follow Hekmatyar to Afghan talks

Subject

Peace talks prospects.

Significance

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the US-blacklisted leader of the anti-government insurgent group Hezb-e Islami Afghanistan (HIA), on March 13 agreed to join peace talks with the Afghan government. This is a much-needed gain for President Ashraf Ghani's administration, which has thus far failed in its efforts to pressure Taliban factions to negotiate.

Impacts

• Pakistan's security apparatus will advance its own strategic interests in Afghanistan via insurgent groups such as the Haqqani network.
• China's continued involvement in the quadrilateral peace talks will pressure Pakistan to be more cooperative, but offers no guarantees.
• The White House will leave any amendments to the Afghan drawdown timetable to the next administration.