Conflict risks will rise as Ukraine peace talks stall

Subject

Slow progress on implementing a peace settlement for Ukraine.

Significance

After four-party talks on a peace deal for Ukraine on March 3, French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said a timetable was agreed for elections in the eastern Donbas region by June 30. However, the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers indicated that little had been achieved. Elections in rebel-held areas are a key point in the Minsk 2.0 accord of February 2015, but the Ukrainian government insists that demilitarisation and stabilisation must come first. Moscow and the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk regions refuse to cede military and security control, so the process is at an impasse.

Impacts

• Lack of progress on Minsk 2.0 may prompt Donbas forces to use hostilities as an instrument for pressing demands.
• If Kyiv agrees to elections in Donbas without concessions from the rebels, it risks a domestic backlash.
• Ukrainian failure to hold elections in coming months will evoke criticism from Western partners without damaging ties irrevocably.