Bosnia's politicians will not work for needed reforms

Subject

Bosnia's dysfunctional political scene.

Significance

Early positioning for local elections in October could further destabilise Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH), which has been falling deeper into political, economic and social turmoil for a decade. This spells trouble for fiscal stability in particular, since both BiH 'entities' -- the Federation of BiH and Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) -- face serious cash shortages and depend on a new IMF programme, which is being negotiated but requires some difficult reforms that may face serious obstacles amid electioneering.

Impacts

• Relentless quarrels between and within the two main Bosnian Serb blocs will frustrate a deeply polarised and politicised population.
• Since the SDS bloc is in alliance with Bosniak and Croat parties, RS internal quarrels could spread to the state level.
• In the Federation, Bosniak parties' political antics could involve judicial institutions, stopping or reversing mildly positive trends.
• The prospect of integrating with the EU will lose its attraction as the EU's own problems accumulate.