Constitution will overshadow Japan election campaign

Subject

The outlook for legislation and party politics ahead of the July upper house election.

Significance

Now in his fourth year as prime minister, Shinzo Abe enjoys strong public support and faces no serious challenger. In an upper house election in July, his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) hopes to capture enough seats to call a referendum on revising the constitution -- Abe's ultimate political aim.

Impacts

• Abe will use Japan's hosting of the G7 summit in May to present himself as a world statesman.
• A new emphasis on welfare and social inclusion will not come at the expense of the LDP's traditional pro-business policies.
• TPP ratification is likely before May.
• With the voting age lowered for the first time to 18, the more socially progressive but less pacificist youth vote becomes more important.