Russia tensions may hinder Arctic governance

Significance

It claims an additional 1.2 million square kilometres of seabed below the North Pole ice cap under Article 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). If the CLCS accepts the technical and scientific data presented by Russia on its continental shelf, Moscow would be legally entitled to exploit the mineral and energy resources on an expanse of seabed ranging 350 nautical miles (648.2 kilometres) from its shores. This will conflict with the goals of a number of other claimants, which are attempting to resolve boundary disputes, maximise Arctic economic possibilities and conserve the fragile Arctic ecosystem.

Impacts

• Western sanctions will hinder Russian Arctic hydrocarbon exploration and drilling efforts.
• Innovations in deep sea robotics and high-absorbency polymers for Arctic use may enable offshore drilling elsewhere.
• More Arctic shipping will increase the need for a Polar Code enforcement mechanism.
• Russian detention of environmental or indigenous activists may complicate relations with the West.