EU referendum may also decide next UK prime minister

Significance

These encompass the euro-area's economic governance, enhanced competitiveness and cutting red tape, the "special" UK situation as regards further political integration, and a safeguard mechanism against exceptional inflows of workers from other member states. Tusk said that, given willingness to compromise, a draft agreement might be put to the other EU governments at the February 18-19 summit. A date will then be set for a UK referendum on EU membership, in either late June or mid-September. With this achieved, Prime Minister David Cameron is expected to leave office in 2018 or 2019, allowing his successor a respectable period in office before the 2020 general election.

Impacts

• The three current leadership front runners must calculate where to position themselves on the referendum and how prominent a role to play.
• At least one outsider candidate may take a striking position in the 'out' camp to acquire a political base for the leadership contest.
• Most calculations depend less on the likely referendum result than where most Conservative MPs, activists, members and voters end up.