El Chapo arrest will not improve Mexican security

Subject

The recapture of the world's most-wanted drug trafficker.

Significance

On January 8, federal police detained fugitive drug trafficker Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman Loera, following his high-profile escape from the maximum-security Altiplano prison on July 11. Both his escape and his recapture have generated considerable media attention, and could have ramifications for organised crime, the government of President Enrique Pena Nieto and US-Mexican relations.

Impacts

• Another escape, though possible, is extremely unlikely.
• El Chapo's extradition may not take place until after the end of Pena Nieto's term.
• Any popularity increase for Pena Nieto resulting from the recapture will be short lived.
• While the Sinaloa cartel is relatively cohesive, it may splinter in the medium-to-long term.