Turkish Straits standoff with Russia will be avoided

Subject

Ring-fencing free navigation through the Turkish Straits from the Russian-Turkish confrontation.

Significance

Turkey's relations with Russia are at their chilliest since the days of Stalin, after the downing of a Russian warplane on November 24. The Turks are examining all their options for dealing with possible future challenges from their powerful northern neighbour. However bad the relationship, vessels travelling between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean must pass through the Turkish Straits. Interfering with this could have explosive consequences in the region.

Impacts

• The Straits are important for oil and cereals exports from Russia's port of Novorossiysk, from Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
• Russia has no interest in the man-made canal bypassing the Straits that Erdogan dreams of.
• There will be some reluctance to abandon an international agreement observed since 1936.