No end in sight for Ukraine-Russia tensions in 2016

Significance

Relations between Moscow and Kyiv continue to be terrible and there appears to be little sign that tensions will ease next year. In recent weeks, ties have soured further over Crimean energy problems and Kyiv's announcement that it is to stop trading with the peninsula; ongoing tensions in Donbas; the Ukraine-EU free-trade deal starting in January; and Ukraine's moratorium on paying its 3-billion-dollar Eurobond debt to Russia.

Impacts

• International partners will put pressure on Kyiv over corruption.
• NATO militaries will increase cooperation with Ukrainian armed forces but the West will continue to resist giving lethal aid.
• Political tensions in Kyiv over the reform programme may grow, endangering the ruling coalition.