Vietnam 2016 Congress will see leadership shake-up

Subject

Outlook for the Vietnamese communist party's 2016 party assembly.

Significance

The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)'s Central Committee is meeting from December 14-22 in preparation for the party's twelfth National Congress in January that will inaugurate new leadership for 2016-20. New party leadership brings a new national government.

Impacts

• Party infighting will probably spike before the 2016 congress convenes.
• The congress is likely to confirm Vietnam's support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
• If the next Party leadership does not gel and operate effectively, the government may struggle to coordinate policy.