Resurgent Russia pushes Nordic states towards West

Subject

Outlook for Nordic-NATO defence cooperation.

Significance

The Russian intervention in Ukraine and assertive stance against NATO -- particular in the Baltic Sea region -- has pushed the Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to reassess their defence and security policies in order to be better prepared to manage crises and deter aggression in northern Europe. This constitutes a sharp change in strategic outlook, as the Nordic-Baltic region has been characterised by low tensions, stability and continued economic and political integration since the end of the Cold War.

Impacts

• Nordic participation in multilateral international operations may wane as their defence focus shifts to the Baltic region.
• Scandinavian procurement programmes present commercial opportunities to defence and aerospace firms.
• Prioritising bilateral security arrangements may fragment a unified US-Nordics approach to regional security.
• Closer security ties with the West are likely to compromise Scandinavia's negotiating position with Moscow on other issues.