Middle East export growth will be slow

Subject

Regional trade performance.

Significance

The fall in oil prices has renewed focus on the future of exports from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). However, export diversification and quality are low across the whole of the region's oil and non-oil exporting economies compared to other areas of the world.

Impacts

• The GCC will negotiate more Free Trade Agreements to help protect against protectionist international trade policies.
• China will be the GCC's largest export market, but will attempt to reduce dependence on GCC petrochemicals.
• This will force greater efforts by the GCC to diversify its trade relations.
• North African exports will gain from an expected upturn in the EU, but will be vulnerable due to the concentration of their markets.