Reformed Myanmar military would have regional focus

Subject

Myanmar military reform scenarios.

Significance

Myanmar's November 8 national elections are widely seen as a watershed in the country's post-2010 political transition from 49 years of military rule. Yet beyond the election, securing enduring democracy in Myanmar will require (and cause) institutional reform for Myanmar's military (Tatmadaw) and the wider security sector, with regional and international implications.

Impacts

• The military's economic influence will endure for years, impeding a level-playing field for investors.
• Possible China-India frictions could drive Tatmadaw naval modernisation.
• An externally-facing Tatmadaw would deepen its integration with regional security frameworks.