Syria action risks growing terrorism threat in Russia

Subject

Terrorism risks to Russia.

Significance

The Islamic State group (ISG) called for jihad against Russia and the United States on October 13. ISG regards Moscow and Washington as fighting a 'crusader war' against Muslims. Concern in Russia is growing that President Vladimir Putin's Syrian intervention will increase the terrorism threat inside the country.

Impacts

• Exodus of radicals to fight with ISG has improved the security situation in the North Caucasus but many may seek to return to attack Russia.
• Chechen leader Kadyrov's power will grow if North Caucasus terrorism increases, as Moscow will need him to help restore order.
• Russia will push for closer security cooperation with Western agencies, the Kremlin using the threat as an argument for defending Damascus.