Myanmar's partial ceasefire faces precarious future

Subject

Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up.

Significance

Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8.

Impacts

• The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire.
• The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period.
• The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.