New Zimbabwe opposition will face uphill battle

Subject

Outlook for Zimbabwe's political parties.

Significance

President Robert Mugabe's ousted deputy, Joice Mujuru, last month launched a formal opposition manifesto, the strongest sign yet that she seeks to challenge Mugabe in 2018 elections. This adds a new dimension to a political landscape already unsettled over presidential succession within the ruling ZANU-PF.

Impacts

• Mining firms may use a recently proposed additional tax, coupled with power cuts, as reasons to slow or even halt certain operations.
• The issue of compensation to white farmers over land invasions in the 2000s remains unresolved and could stymie a detente with donors.
• High inputs costs for firms and deflation will dampen growth and raise unemployment, providing fertile ground for the opposition.