Tunisia coalition stability hangs on economy

Subject

The effect of economic pressures on government unity.

Significance

The coalition government is struggling under the strain of multiple challenges -- an economic recession, an unresolved security crisis and sharp divisions over controversial policies. Secularist party Nidaa Tounes, which dominates the cabinet, is undergoing an internal power struggle. The leadership of Islamist movement Ennahda is facing rising frustration from within its own ranks. Strikes, sit-ins, and popular demonstrations continue nationwide as critics fear a slide back to authoritarian tendencies. Tunisia's fragile democratic transition, held out as a model of change in the Middle East and North Africa, is at risk of stalling.

Impacts

• Industrial action and popular protests may increase in the months ahead.
• Coalition divisions will hamper much-needed government strategies to counter the terrorist threat.
• The transitional justice process is under severe political pressure and is likely to be delayed further.
• Growing public concern about a lack of direction and energy in policymaking could prompt a cabinet reshuffle.