Middle East regimes will survive lasting instability

Subject

Regime resilience in the Middle East.

Significance

The Middle East's political order has been shaken at the start of the 21st century by the sudden and violent removal of long-standing authoritarian rulers in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Iraq and Yemen; mass protests against the government in Tehran; and the collapse of regime authority in large parts of Syria. Far from paving the way to an era of more democratic and stable rule in the Middle East, most countries have instead experienced increasingly dysfunctional governance, reinforced authoritarianism, sectarian tensions, or civil wars. This raises questions about the sustainability of the status quo and the long-term direction of political systems across the region.

Impacts

• Some countries may yet transition to more representative and accountable forms of government over the next ten years (Tunisia, Morocco).
• Deteriorating economic conditions and escalating proxy conflicts will see volatility rise across the region.
• The United States will resist pressure to step up its intervention in the region to help restore stability.
• Political Islam is unlikely to make a serious comeback in the near term, but will be active in Morocco, Tunisia, Bahrain and Kuwait.
• Regime repression and security force brutality will radicalise political opposition and increase recruitment to jihadist groups.