BRICS trade strategies might be headed for a shift

Subject

Prospects for a change the BRICS' trade strategies.

Significance

At their leaders' summit in Ufa, Russia on July 8-9 and at the trade ministers' meeting in Moscow on July 13, BRICS countries emphasised the need to enhance intra-group economic cooperation, especially trade policy. The meetings also saw a shift in BRICS statements on protectionism, consistent with data that show how other developing countries are harming the BRICS' commercial interests the most. These developments raise questions over the BRICS' commercial policy strategy and whether it is likely to change, at a time when many countries are negotiating regional trade agreements and hopes are high for the completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Impacts

• A free trade agreement between the BRICS is unlikely in the near term.
• The 'Strategy for BRICS Economic Partnership' includes no timetable of next steps, either in general or in commercial policy terms.
• Claims that the BRICS are a positive force in the multilateral trading system will be harder to sustain.