Ukraine's humanitarian crisis may escalate this winter

Significance

While the risk is high throughout most of Ukraine, in war-ravaged Donbas the risk will be even greater. A new ceasefire started on September 1, in an attempt to bolster the Minsk 2.0 peace process, which has nearly collapsed. However, the risk of continuing violence remains very high and the shattered region will need billions of dollars in reconstruction funding which Russia is not willing to pay and Ukraine cannot afford.

Impacts

• The resettlement of Donbas refugees will increase pressure on a strained economy.
• The disruption of water and sewage treatment in separatist Donbas may result in multiple outbreaks of infectious diseases.
• A repetition of the cholera outbreak that occurred in Donetsk region in 2011 is likely.