Lebanon protests risk destabilising fragile status quo

Significance

Uncollected waste has been piling up in the capital since the country's largest landfill closed on July 17. Prime Minister Tammam Salam has threatened to resign over the crisis, which has also seen mass protests organised by civil society groups. The protests raise questions over Lebanon's resilience in the face of domestic political paralysis and regional turmoil.

Impacts

• Protest escalation could force resignation of prime minister or individual ministers, and throw Lebanon into a constitutional crisis.
• Destabilisation of the state could encourage Sunni militants to seek to control areas in Tripoli, the north and the Beka'a Valley.
• Turmoil in Lebanon could distract Hezbollah from its war effort in Syria, thereby weakening Syrian regime's territorial control.
• A political crisis in Lebanon would heighten regional tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.