Dagestan expenses may become problem for Russia

Subject

Prospects for Dagestan.

Significance

Dagestan appears to be winning the struggle with terrorists, guerrillas and mafia gangs; violence in the province subsided last year and the trend seems to be holding for the first half of 2015. Ramazan Abdulatipov, Dagestan's president, declared a new anti-terrorism strategy from the start of his tenure in January 2013. While continuing traditional law-enforcement, he laid out a broad plan of economic development and institutional reform to eliminate the root causes of instability. However, the investment needed for Abdulatipov's plan can only come from Russia's federal budget, which is under serious pressure.

Impacts

• The Kremlin may decide that the Chechen approach of allowing the local elite wide autonomy is preferable to the current Dagestan model.
• The anti-corruption campaign may exacerbate tensions.
• Security structures in the Russian government will rise to positions of greater prominence should Dagestan's situation worsen.