Saudi coalition will roll back Huthis in south Yemen

Significance

They were supported by fighters trained in Saudi Arabia, military equipment from the United Arab Emirates and a naval and air bombardment. The coalition was taking advantage of the withdrawal of brigades units loyal to the Huthis' ally, former President Ali Abdallah Saleh, a few days earlier. This represents the first major victory for the international coalition and anti-Huthi forces since the start of the Saudi-led campaign in March.

Impacts

• The humanitarian crisis will escalate as prospects for a ceasefire or peace talks diminish.
• The Huthi defeat in Aden may inspire anti-Huthi forces elsewhere to escalate.
• Victory in Aden and return of Hadi government will boost credibility of top Saudi leaders Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Nayef.
• Fighting may escalate in Lahij and Dhala and Ta'izz, then spread to al-Bayda and Ibb.
• Lacking credibility, Hadi is likely to be replaced soon after his return by Vice-President Khaled Baha.