UK's Cameron likely to go for EU referendum in 2016

Subject

The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership.

Significance

The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process.

Impacts

• The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016.
• This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council.
• The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.