Taiwan election race stalls cross-Strait engagement

Subject

Electoral politics in Taiwan.

Significance

At the party congress of the ruling Kuomintang on June 19, Hung Hsiu-chu, deputy speaker of the Legislative Yuan, was formally recommended to represent the party in the presidential election on January 16, 2016. Hung will face Tsai Ing-wen, the chairwoman and presidential nominee of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2012. Barring a strong showing by an independent candidate, Taiwan will elect its first female president in 2016.

Impacts

• Cross-strait agreements will stall during the election season and are unlikely to progress quickly under a DPP administration.
• Taiwan-US relations will improve as a result of Washington's growing frustration with Beijing.
• Unlike last time, Tsai will not face the perception that Washington favours the Kuomintang.
• A Tsai presidency would mean less business-friendly economic policies and moves toward decommissioning Taiwan's nuclear power plants.
• However, the Kuomintang is likely to retain control of the legislature, which would curtail Tsai's power considerably.