Violence may weaken FARC's position in Colombia talks

Subject

Colombia confidence measures

Significance

Following confidence-building measures (CBMs) and a rare period of cooperation between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Colombian government, a rebel attack in April has undermined the fragile trust. The government appears unmoved on the issue of a bilateral ceasefire and with each FARC attack damaging its public image, the rebels' acts of violence may prove counterproductive at the negotiating table.

Impacts

• The FARC attack raises questions over the organisation's cohesion and its potential to fracture in the event of a peace agreement.
• Reduced trust between the government and the FARC could slow progress at the negotiation table and weaken the FARC's hand.
• Failure to secure a deal that mid-level commanders consider fair could encourage the group's fragmentation.