Ideological divisions will drive jihadist rivalry

Subject

Ideological divisions between Islamic State group and al-Qaida.

Significance

Islamic State group (ISG) and al-Qaida are both rooted in the same ideology, namely jihadi-salafism, which draws heavily on the Islamic tradition native to Saudi Arabia known as Wahhabism. However, fundamental ideological differences exist between the two rival groups, contributing to their acrimonious split in February 2014. Ideology underlies their divergent strategies and priorities, and will play a key part in determining which one wins the battle for supremacy of the global jihadist movement.

Impacts

• Reconciliation is highly unlikely, but tactical cooperation will still occur on the ground.
• Sectarian attacks will increase, raising perceptions of a regional Sunni-Shia war.
• Competition for leadership of the global jihad could see both groups attempt attacks on Western targets.
• Military setbacks could narrow ISG's current lead over al-Qaida in terms of popularity and profile.
• Al-Qaida's more conciliatory and accommodative approach to local groups may mean it has greater prospects of long-term survival than ISG.