Saudi's Yemen campaign may disrupt Horn relations

Subject

Implications of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen for relation in the Horn of Africa.

Significance

The intervention of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen threatens to re-order strategic relationships between concerned Arab states and the Horn of Africa. The largest indication of this shift is the Red Sea security agreement between Eritrea and Saudi Arabia on April 30. The agreement has rankled Ethiopia and its regional allies, who are keen to 'contain' Eritrea and prevent its bid to emerge from international isolation. Given the range of other interests that Ethiopia shares with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Yemen, it is unlikely that a significant rupture will occur. However, the impact of these tensions could be significant, as Ethiopia will remain committed to thwarting closer relations between Asmara and Arab states.

Impacts

• Riyadh's outreach to allies is a tactic for success in its Yemen campaign and may not necessarily indicate long-term strategic shifts.
• Such new relationships will be highly contingent on developments in Yemen.
• However, Saudi Arabia will not halt the campaign until a decisive victory against the Huthi rebels and forces loyal to the former president.