EU is likely to renew Russia sanctions

Significance

Russia has said the ban is in response to the EU's sanctions against Russia. EU economic sanctions expire at the end of July, and their renewal requires consensus. The contingent nature of the circumstances that allowed the sanctions' introduction has led to speculation that the EU will be unable to maintain its united stance. The entry ban forms part of Russia's effort to split the bloc before its sanctions renewal decision.

Impacts

• The sanctions renewal decision could come at the June 25-26 EU summit, or be delayed to a later foreign ministers' meeting.
• Washington is likely to maintain steady pressure on its European allies to maintain a hard line against Moscow on Ukraine.
• The CEE EU states' responsibilities as EU and NATO members are likely to override their views of their own interests.
• The outcome of the Iran nuclear negotiations could affect EU views about the effectiveness of sanctions as a diplomatic tool.