Money and geopolitics will limit Georgian rearmament

Subject

The new defence minister's arms procurement problem.

Significance

The appointment of Defence Minister Tinatin Khidasheli is a strong statement of intent by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) coalition to maintain a strongly Western-oriented foreign policy. Khidasheli has a portfolio still tainted by the controversy that accompanied the departure of Irakli Alasania, who was seen as an aggressive advocate of military transformation. Among Alasania's key objectives were the acquisition of advanced Western weapons, for which Alasania claims he was ejected from his post. Yet the Georgian defence budget has fallen precipitously from a high of over 1 billion dollars in 2007-08, to less than 400 million in 2013, and less than 300 million in 2015.

Impacts

• Khidasheli is likely to seek to continue many of Alasania's modernisation policies, but is unlikely to replicate his sense of urgency.
• Symbolic progress on acquiring weapons is likely in the near-to-medium term, but no major Western arms acquisition will be finalised soon.
• However, a perception of increased Western disengagement appears to justify Georgian requirements for more robust self-defence systems.