Iran deal will stoke Saudi, UAE regional activism

Significance

Obama will seek to gain their support for a final deal on Iran's nuclear programme and reassure them that the United States remains committed to regional security. This is likely to fall short of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders' expectations that the summit will formalise and deepen US security commitments in the Gulf. Moreover, Gulf rulers remain convinced that Iran has continued to spread its influence across the region, and they will resist any US attempt to narrow the focus of the summit onto the benefits of a nuclear agreement alone.

Impacts

• GCC distrust of Iranian objectives and US policies in the region means they will develop more assertive approaches to regional security.
• Any normalisation of international policy on Iran following a final nuclear agreement will test GCC cohesion.
• United States faces inking Iran deal without support of any of its regional allies, Israel and the Gulf.
• Oman, Qatar and Dubai will move swiftly to build closer economic and commercial ties with Iran.