Fear of Russia will drive Belarus's defence policy

Significance

The events in Crimea and Donbas have demonstrated Russia's willingness to use military force to influence neighbouring states. Recent months have seen growing disputes between Belarus and Russia over trade, including allegations that Minsk is helping to evade Moscow's ban on EU foodstuffs with re-exports. Minsk's courting of warmer ties with the West also rankles Moscow. Concern is growing in Minsk that Moscow may intervene if the Kremlin feels necessary.

Impacts

• Fear of Russia may lead the Belarusian security service to develop a covert relationship with Poland's intelligence services.
• Belarus's relationship with Ukraine will remain cordial as both countries realise their shared vulnerability to Russia.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping's May 10 Minsk visit and Lukashenka's recent Chinese news interview are highlighting warming ties.