Western Saharan frustration may trigger local violence

Subject

Progress on the Western Saharan conflict

Significance

The UN Security Council (UNSC) voted on April 28 to extend for another year the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). The force observes a ceasefire (since 1991) between Morocco and the Polisario Front in the Western Sahara (the organisation recognised by the UN as representing Sahrawis). African Union (AU) demands to upgrade MINURSO's mandate to include human rights monitoring in the contested territory were rejected. Instead the watered down resolution calls on Morocco and the Polisario Front to "enter a more intensive and substantive phase of negotiations" in order to reach a political solution.

Impacts

• Sahrawi activists backed by Algeria will wage a legal battle against international companies cooperating with Morocco in Western Sahara.
• Diplomatic tension and competition between Morocco and Algeria will intensify and complicate regional conflict resolution efforts.
• However, a direct military confrontation between Morocco and Algeria is unlikely.
• The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCR) may become more active in monitoring human rights in Western Sahara.
• This could create tension between OHCR and Rabat, and raise scrutiny on firms seeking to invest in Western Sahara or import goods.