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Parties hold key to Africa stability, reform prospects

Monday, April 27, 2015

Subject

Effect of political parties on reform and stability in Africa.

Significance

Despite Nigeria's historic election, the broad continental trend is that the future of many sub-Saharan African (SSA) states lies with ruling parties, not opposition politics. The convergence of multiple elections in 2015-16 along with commodity price shocks are bringing many ruling party regimes to a critical juncture. The structure of these regimes are an important indicator for the prospects for reforms and stability.

Impacts

  • Narrow-based ruling parties in oil rich states are being forced to rationalise patronage networks to deal with the price shock.
  • The broad character of Ghana's ruling and opposition parties means that both would face obstacles implementing IMF reforms.
  • South Africa's opposition Democratic Alliance finds it hard to set clear policies while growing its base and attracting coalition partners.

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