Deadly Thai insurgency shows no signs of ending

Subject

Outlook for the southern insurgency.

Significance

Thai security forces went on alert in early March ahead of the 55th anniversary of the founding of the National Revolutionary Front (BRN), one of the primary militias in southern Thailand's insurgency. During the week of the anniversary, there were four shootings and a bombing. These attacks followed the junta's claim that overall violence has declined in the region. The military has raised the prospect of a new peace process, although progress in organising the next round has been slow.

Impacts

• The insurgency will have a limited impact on the economy; its impact will largely be confined to some SEZ plans.
• Improvements in Thailand's ties with Malaysia will be key to beginning a meaningful peace process.
• Violence in the south is unlikely to impede the drafting of a new constitution and the conduct of fresh parliamentary polls.