Myanmar's political civilianisation may face 2015 test

Subject

The outlook for Myanmar's political transition from military rule.

Significance

Myanmar holds elections in late 2015, the first since exiting full military rule; the Tatmadaw (military) is relinquishing power, reinterpreting its relationship with the state. Nonetheless, it remains politically significant. Reported today, President Thein Sein asserts that through "being involved in national politics" the Tatamdaw "is assisting in the flourishing of democracy". The opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) and leader Aung San Suu Kyi disagree, although Suu Kyi underlines building constructive links with the Tatmadaw, as she told an NLD rally on March 1.

Impacts

• As it leaves politics, the Tatmadaw's leadership will seek a new institutional focus.
• This will probably see force capability modernisation and efforts to enhance troops' professionalism.
• Tatmadaw leaders will try to balance their perceptions of the national interest with pro-democracy feeling in the military.
• Stakeholders will cooperate with the Tatmadaw as Myanmar transitions politically; the military will reciprocate where it agrees.