Turkey's election will be plebiscite on Erdogan

Monday, March 16, 2015


Early campaigning for the June 7 general election.


The election is turning into a plebiscite on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's highly personal style of government. At particular issue is whether he should be enabled to set up an executive presidency by winning the two-thirds majority in the next National Assembly that would allow constitutional changes. With no serious rivals inside or outside the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan's attempts to impose his political will regardless of consequences have triggered a slide in the value of the lira and a confrontation with the head of the country's intelligence service.


  • Relations between Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu are uneasy, but Davutoglu is unlikely to be changed before the elections.
  • Erdogan seems to have called a truce with the Central Bank, but this appears not to extend to allowing it to raise interest rates.
  • This reflects a certain underlying pragmatism to the president's outlook, provided he has advisers around him who dare warn him of dangers.
  • Ocalan is now a pivotal political figure in Turkey as the government has made some sort of settlement with the Kurds a key goal.
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica
Stay up to date
Sign up to the Expert Daily Briefings email alert and receive up-to-the-minute analysis of global events as they happen.
*If your university does not have access to Expert Briefings, visit our information page to find out more.
To read the full version of this content please select one of the options below
You may be able to access this content by logging in via Shibboleth, Open Athens or with your Emerald account.
Would you like to purchase this content for your university? Click the button to visit our Expert Briefing product page for purchasing information.
If you think you should have access to this content, click the button to contact our support team.