Instability in Libya has exacerbated an already fraught security environment in the Maghreb and the Sahel. Several militant groups co-exist in these parts, usually in competition with each other. The Islamic State group (ISG) has taken centre stage, but despite high profile attacks in Libya, it has failed to establish a foothold in other Maghreb countries.
- ISG encroachment in Libya will strengthen calls for international action to address Libya's crisis.
- Sporadic attacks are expected against security forces and government targets in Tunisia and Algeria.
- Government pressure and expanded counterterrorism operations could cause more widespread abuses of human rights.
- Fighters returning from jihad in Syria and Iraq could bolster the capabilities of local jihadist cells.