Sudan's stage-managed election favours status quo

Subject

The presidential and parliamentary elections in April.

Significance

President Omar Hassan al-Bashir has been in power for nearly 26 years. In the past four years Bashir and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) have weathered the secession of South Sudan, economic stagnation, protests and renewed armed conflict in parts of the country. The government has committed itself to holding full elections on April 13-15 in line with the electoral timetable, but much of the competitive politicking has already taken place.

Impacts

• Economic policy and practice will not change, with government departments suffering from politicisation and interests that deter reform.
• The low-level conflicts in Blue Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur will remain unresolved.
• Khartoum and central and northern Sudan will remain secure unless a political crisis occurs at the centre.