The government's security policy.
President Enrique Pena Nieto's December trip to the border city of Ciudad Juarez -- once 'the most dangerous city in the world' -- was designed to highlight an area where the government's security policies seem to have garnered impressive results. Pena Nieto claimed that since the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) took power two years ago, homicides in the city had decreased by 50%. However, this improving situation is not representative of Mexico as a whole.
- Homicide, extortion, and kidnapping rates in Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana and Monterrey will continue to drop.
- Implementing the same security policy in states with warring organised crime groups remains much more problematic.
- In Guerrero, Michoacan and Tamaulipas, homicide, kidnapping and extortion rates will stay stable or rise.