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Political gridlock will slow Bangladesh growth to 4%

Monday, February 16, 2015

Significance

The new strike, which triggered significant violence in Dhaka and elsewhere, reflects the intensification of political strife since the start of 2015. The incumbent Awami League (AL) and the BNP are engaged in a violent standoff: neither side is willing to compromise, but nor do they have the strength completely to outflank the other. Mediating institutions are proving ineffective.

Impacts

  • International organisations will call for fresh and fair elections, but the AL will wait until domestic pressure becomes irresistible.
  • Assam elections could set the tone for India-Bangladesh ties in late 2015 and 2016.
  • Business groups are more likely than civil society leaders to succeed in brokering a compromise.
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